Football Betting Stats for Wiser Wagers
Pros and Cons of Using Football StatsAlthough there is no doubt that football stats can help increase your chances of winning a bet, don’t imagine that they can lead you to a sure thing. Upsets of even the most heavily favoured teams happen so often they are practically routine. Even advanced metrics are limited in what they can tell us, and although they can boost our confidence along with our odds of winning, they can be misleading too, especially if we don’t read them carefully. Here are some of the pros and cons of using stats when wagering on football.
Pros of Football Betting Statistics
Since football stats can help you make informed decisions, their benefits are almost too great to count.
The most obvious is that they are based on quantifiable data. For example, Lionel Messi made 438 goals during 474 appearances, earning the sport’s scoring crown in March 2020. There is no room for interpretation or opinion – it is a fact.
Stats can help us identify an individual player’s strengths and weaknesses. This can help us predict in which areas he will perform well.
Statistics can help us compare the quality of a team in comparison to one or more other teams. This is also pretty handy, since it can help determine how a particular game might play out.
Cons of Football Betting Statistics
Sold? Not so fast. Using stats can also expose you to a number of pitfalls.
Statistics are bare numbers presented without much context – and can therefore be misleading. This is particularly true of individual players stats. It’s tempting to look at a player’s stats over a couple of matches and make predictions about future performance – but that’s a mistake. The stats tell you a few things for certain, but a player’s performance in recent games can be affected by many factors, including the performance of the players around him. Even a star player may not score many goals if the passes to him are poor or the opposing team is weak and already decisively beaten.
The same is true for stats about football teams. Let’s say football stats show Team A has led Team B all season. Can we conclude that Team A is the better team? What if Team A is the home team? It’s had a settled roster and no injuries, while Team B has a new coach and key players with injuries. Team B has faced extensive travel and a tough schedule. These facts – which do not appear on stats pages – suggest that Team B is a better team than its record shows.
This leads us to the main problem with stats. They are quantifiable and authoritative, and therefore we are tempted to rely on them too much, without taking other factors into account.
When you prepare a wager, combine data analysis with other football betting tips that take motivation, venue, injuries, and other factors into account. Stats are uniquely valuable, but for successful wagering, you must analyze them thoroughly and place them in context with other factors.
That’s why we say there are both pros and cons in using statistics. The key point is that they should augment other kinds of information that you gather from other sources. There’s no substitute for a well-rounded comprehensive view of each team’s history, strengths, and weaknesses.
The Most Important Football Stats for BettingNow that we have highlighted the advantages and dangers of following stats, the next question is clear: Which numbers can help us make sound betting decisions? It turns out not to be a simple question. If you’re making simple match bets based on who will win a particular game, then you want to look at win-loss records, points scored, and so on. If you’re making a more complicated bet, you’ll need to look at different numbers. No matter what kinds of bets you prefer, some basic betting stats can help make you a better punter.
Position in the LeagueEven though you may be completely familiar with a team, you can get a clearer idea of its future performance by looking at its past positions in the league. This shouldn’t be the only thing you look at. But if you want to get a deeper understanding of the team, you need to start with the basics - and nothing is more basic than a team’s position.
Current FormFootball form stats are among the most basic football betting statistics, and every punter should study them. The form delivers valuable insights on how well or how badly each team is playing at a particular moment. Of course you should take this data into account as you prepare your bets. Any team can suffer a slump at any time; however, the cross-referencing form is a very good way to decide if you like the odds your bookmaker is offering. The league form is a good summary of how the teams are currently playing. But before you lay your money down, it’s worth taking some time to make sure you have all the relevant football data, including matches that aren’t part of league play. The conclusions you draw from the form are not always strictly numeric. In general, teams that are playing well continue to play well, and teams performing poorly tend to continue losing. But confidence and momentum play large roles in football, and a team making a mid-season bid for the title may perform better than its statistics lead you to expect. Stats on the form can help you make a better prediction on the outcome of a match. Be sure to consider additional football bet data like the quality of the opponents, current win/lose trends, winning margins, and other factors to get the whole picture.
Opposition StrengthA team can’t really be considered in top form because it has won the past two or three matches. It needs to have defeated direct rivals and other teams that stand between them and a championship. Before anyone gets excited about a five-game winning streak, it’s important to look at who the opponents were. A lopsided schedule could cluster meetings with weaker teams all at once, leading fans and unwary punters to unwarranted predictions about a team’s future. The solution? More football bet data. Crunch the numbers. Were the defeated competitors strong teams? Did they appear in the top 10 division? If your team has not tested its mettle against powerful opponents, it is foolish to suggest it will beat them. There is important data to collect from a month or two of games, but for a clearer picture, it’s best to analyze as many months as you can. Winning consistently over the long haul is what makes football teams worth betting on. A great many wagers are lost by punters who fail to evaluate team performance against relevant rivals.
Winning and Losing MarginsThe margins of winning or losing are easy to overlook, but they are important factors to consider when football betting. A team that has won a number of matches by a hair’s breadth may be weaker than a team with a smaller number of decisive wins. In both these cases, the win-loss record alone paints a misleading picture. It is easy to assume that a team with a string of losses is performing badly, but if they are playing stronger opponents or losing by a single goal, this might not be a fair assessment.
Home vs. AwayIt is pretty common knowledge that teams perform better at home than on someone else’s turf. Take a look at these football team stats from the 2016-2017 Premier League season:
- Home goals: 607
- Away goals: 457
- 49.2% of games won by home team
- 28.7% of games won by away team
Possession StatisticsPossession is one of the key pieces of information you should evaluate before making a football bet. Possession simply indicates the percentage of time each team has possession of the ball. This is one of the most common football stats in match reports and it can reveal a lot about a team’s performance and playing style. Home teams typically have more possession time than away teams. The same is true of stronger teams against weaker opponents. Football statistics like possession can help you detect fluctuations during the game that suggest a team may be struggling.
Shots vs. GoalsShots metrics are often used alongside possession statistics. Knowing that a team has made twice as many shots at the goal as its opponents can help you make a more informed bet. These bet statistics can be misleading. For example, when a team is behind and time is running out, it may become desperate and make a lot more shots. The numbers look impressive, but in context, they do not reflect good performance. It is generally more informative and helpful to compare the number of shots taken to the number of goals scored.
Average Goals ScoredAverage goals scored is an important statistic, especially when your bet is essentially a prediction of how many goals will be scored in an upcoming match. So you’ve got to look at both teams and determine the average goals per game. It’s not that easy, of course. Nothing is. A successful team may lose 0-1 once in a while, and even the weakest team has the occasional 4-0 victory. But in the long run, teams that score more goals win more games. Consider a team that averages 2.7 goals per game over the season. It might be reasonable to bet that it will score over 2.5 in the next match - depending on how generous the odds are, of course.
Head-to-Head Football StatsProfessional football bettors are divided on whether head-to-head stats are important. Our advice is to take them into account, especially if two teams have a long history with one consistently dominating the other. Head-to-head statistics can also be revealing when you’re betting on total goals or another aspect of the game. The problem with head-to-head bet stats is that they aren’t always relevant. There are always multiple reasons behind wins and losses. Signing a new coach, the injury of a key player, inclement weather - if you’re not aware of these factors, it is easy to read too much into head-to-head stats. Don’t get hooked in by a statistical anomaly.
The Final ScoreWhen it comes to stats, more is better. The better informed you are, the more analysis you do, the better prepared you will be to make winning bets. That’s the beauty of football statistics and predictions. That doesn’t mean you’ll always win, of course. You will probably bet more confidently and win more often, but even that isn’t a sure thing. On any given day, anything can happen on the playing field. But it is undeniable that some outcomes are more likely than others, and you can identify them by tracking and analyzing key statistics. This approach will put you on the road toward more profitable football betting.
What should I look for when betting on football?
When you are looking to bet on football, stats and betting tips can come in very handy. Some of the most important statistics include a team’s position in the league, its current form stats, the opposition’s strength, home versus away records, time-of-possession stats, shots-taken stats, and goals scored. To make an educated bet, you should take a look at all these statistics.
How is statistics used in football?
If you want to assess the overall quality of a football league, team, or player, you will need to look at the entire football statistics database. Examine current, recent, and historical performance and compare this data with stats related to the competition. If every wager you place is grounded in these numbers, you have a better chance of succeeding.
Stats can’t show you the exact outcome of a game with any precision or authority; they simply improve your chances of making a successful wager by giving you the facts you need to make educated decisions.
Which is the best football analysis site?
The best football stats sites can offer you a treasure trove of football statistics. These include:
Each of these sites has strengths and weaknesses, but they all provide crucial statistics that can help you make successful football wagers. Explore them all and pick the one you like. You can’t go wrong: Every one of them is packed with useful football betting stats.